The Freakonomics blog recently launched a Prediction Challenge of the Week crowdsourcing tool. Built off of the Predictify platform, a company that recently received over $4 MM in financing, users are asked to vote on a possible democratic nomination ticket, the winner of the 2008 NBA, and the likelihood of certain countries boycotting the 08 Beijing Olympics. What's the benefit to the Freakonomics blog, which lives on The NY Times site? It's an engagement vehicle, to get readers more involved in the ideas represented by the bloggers of the best selling book. What's the benefit to Predictify? Well, a market for crowdsourcing is as valuable as the crowd you attract. By capturing the smarty pants readers of the Freakonomics blog, the site is likely hoping to lure smart people who enjoy proving how smart they are on a regular basis.

Our clients have been experimenting with crowdsourcing as a vehicle for engagement, and any prediction value to date has been more qualitative and conversational than the numbers-based method of sites like Predictify. The challenge in applying these lessons to branding is that who is in the crowd is what matters most. Hoi polloi or your average internet user crowd might be good at predicting which car or new sparkling beverage will succeed with the 20-something group, but of greater value is actually involving representatives from the target in the process of product development, message development, and marketing refinement. Even from a quantitative perspective, brands spend millions on product concept tests and market tests for services like BASES and Synovate. These services can accurately recruit the appropriate target audience, and are therefore unlikely to be easily outdone by those seeking the crowded masses. Finally, because brand managers are more interested in engaging directly with consumers, and opening up a dialogue, they are more likely to gravitate to those sites, tools, and services that can vet who they are talking to. We expect companies to continue experimenting in this space, but will hold back on prediction-based sites or features for the foreseeable future.